Hail Storms

 Something Else to Worry About

   Today, rather than offer more contrarian opinions of which you may not have been aware, I will focus on a meteorological event which you may have missed.  It was not missed in Texas, where very, very big hail stones fell, perhaps deservedly so, on Texans who appreciate having very big things, and likely on many who think that the notion of climate change is a very big conspiracy. I insert that editorial comment because I recall reading recently that there is some concern that climate change may lead to an increase in the number of hail storms and in the production of hail much, much larger, and perhaps even more painful than kidney stones. 

    The heavy hail fell around the first of May and this headline provides all the size data you need: " 'Gargantuan' Hailstone That Fell Wednesday May Claim a New Texas Record: Some Estimates Put the Stone at More Than a Half-Foot Wide." I should add that the headline was not produced by a boasting Texas journalist, but is found in the Washington Post on May 1, 2021. While that my convince you that some very large hail stones were found, Texas readers will know that the Washington Post pushes many conspiracies.

    Although I recall reading that the coming changes in the climate may cause horrible hail storms, I couldn't remember where. After some digging, it was likely from some news stories reporting on this recent study, which says this:
Hailstorms are dangerous and costly phenomena that are expected to change in response to a warming climate. In this Review, we summarize current knowledge of climate change effects on hailstorms. As a result of anthropogenic warming, it is generally anticipated that low-level moisture and convective instability will increase, raising hailstorm likelihood and enabling the formation of larger hailstones; the melting height will rise, enhancing hail melt and increasing the average size of surviving hailstones…..

The authors indicate that such predictions are hard to make and that the composition of hail storms will vary globally. ("The Effects of Climate Change on Hailstorms," Timothy H. Raupach, et al, Nature Reviews Earth & Environment volume 2, pages 213–226(2021).

   We don't generally think much about hail storms and when we have one we usually like running to the window to see the little, short-lived, silver popcorn-like crystals bouncing in the grass. We don't often see them in the increasingly sensational weather news reports because they have melted by the time the TV crew arrives. Floods and tornadoes are much better. 

   But, hail storms have done a lot of damage and they will surely do much more if heavy grapefruit-sized stones start coming through windshields and even roofs. By the way, the record  for the largest hail stone is eight-inches and it melted shortly after falling on Vivian, South Dakota on July 23, 2010. 

Sources: 

The place to begin is with the NOAA, which luckily, mostly outlasted former President Trump.  The U.S. has sustained 291 weather and climate disasters since 1980 in which overall damages/costs exceeded $1 Billion: "U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters."  Hail is not found in a separate category, but is included under "Severe Storms." For example:

South Texas Hail Storms - May 2020: South Texas hail storms cause widespread impact to several cities with golf-ball sized hail damaging many homes, vehicles and businesses. The highest concentration of hail damage occurred across the northern portion of the San Antonio metroplex. There was also significant damage east of San Marcos, southeast of Waco and to the west and south of Bryan and College Station. Total Estimated Costs:

$1.4 Billion; 0 Deaths

Colorado Hail Storms - July 2019: Colorado hail storms across the Denver and Fort Collins that damaged many homes and vehicles. Total

Estimated Costs: $1.0 Billion; 0 Deaths

Texas Hail Storm - June 2018: Large-hail impacts highly-populated area of the Dallas-Ft. Worth metroplex. Golfball to baseball-sized hail damages

many homes, vehicles and businesses. Total Estimated Costs: $1.3 ($1.4) Billion; 0 Deaths

For a good summary of the recent bad news about the weather see: "US Hit With Record Number of Billion-dollar Extreme Weather Disasters in 2020, Esther Whieldon, Platts Energy Trader, Jan. 11, 2021.

The U.S. in 2020 experienced a record-smashing year in billion-dollar-scale extreme weather and climate change-linked disasters such as wildfires, tropical cyclones, tornados and hail storms, according to figures the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released Jan. 8.

In 2020, the U.S. experienced 22 extreme weather and climate-exacerbated disasters that each had losses in excess of $1 billion. Those events collectively caused at least $95 billion in damages, killed at least 262 people and injured scores more, according to NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information.

The largest number of annual major disasters previously was 16, which occurred in 2011 and 2017. The figures for 2020 were also significantly higher than in 2019 when the U.S. experienced 14 major disasters that caused $45 billion in losses.

Scientists have projected that as average global temperatures continue to rise due to human-caused greenhouse gas emissions the number and intensity of extreme weather events would rapidly increase.

See also: Hail Research (which is where the baseball picture above was found.)

Severe Weather - 101 - Hail.  

See also the National Center for Environmental Information (formerly the National Climatic Data Center.)

Some Canadian Sources:

The folks in the insurance business are paying attention. Here is a sample from a recent report from the Insurance Bureau of Canada:

Hailstorms Are Becoming More Severe and Frequent – Are You Prepared?

The frequency, severity and cost of severe weather events are rising across the country. From June until September, it’s hail season in Alberta and the Prairies. Properties in these regions are at risk of damage due to hail, heavy rainfall and strong winds.

The Calgary hailstorm on June 13, 2020 resulted in approximately 70,000 claims and over $1.3 billion in insured damages. The majority of the insured damages was to personal property and vehicles, with a smaller percentage to commercial property. It was the costliest hailstorm in Canadian history and the fourth costliest natural disaster of all time.

For a more detailed report see this one from the Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction: "Hail Climatology for Canada: An Update," David Etkin, York University, Feb. 2018 (47pp. pdf.) The source for this table:

Hail Storms in the Past:

Here are a few samples:

"Worst Hail Storm in Canadian History,: Elizabeth Church, The Globe and Mail, Sept. 7, 2015.

From 100 Years Ago: "Big Hail Storm at Neville Sask. Much Property Damaged in Area 30 by 100 Miles," The Globe, June 15, 1921.

"Hail Stone Stories: Remarkable Rain and Hail Storms in the Southwest," The Atlanta Constitution, April 12, 1887.